MARIA: ALL RIGHT, CHERYL,ING
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
MEANWHILE, THE START OF ELECTION
SEASON IS ON.
THE FORS CONTEST IN IOWA NOW
JUST SIX DAYS AWAY AS THE CHIEF
STRATEGIST AT JPMORGAN ASSET
MANAGEMENT WHO’S VERY WELL KNOWN
IS PREDICTING THAT JOE BIDEN
WILL NOT BE THE DEMOCRAT NOMINEE
AND WILL STEP DOWN FROM THE
CAMPAIGN SOMETIME BEFORE
ELECTION DAY DUE TO MEDICAL
ISSUES.
IT’S PART OF THE STRATEGIST’S
NEW TEN SURPRISES LIST FOR 2024,
AND I ASKED HIS BOSS, CHAIRMAN
AND CEO JAMIE DIE MORNING ABOUT
THE ELECTION AND HIS REACTION.
WATCH.
JAMIE, YOUR CHIEF INVESTMENT
STRATEGIST IS OUT WITH HIS
ANNUAL PREDICTIONS.
AMONG THOSE PREDICTIONS IS THAT
PRESIDENT BIDEN DROPS OUT OF THE
RACE DUE TO MEDICAL ISSUES.
DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?
WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING FOR THIS
ELECTION?
>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, MIKE IS
ONE OF THE BRILLIANT THINKERS
AROUND THE ECONOMY, MARKETS,
POLITICS AND EVERYTHING.
HE WASN’T PREDICTING THAT.
I THINK THAT WAS A LIST HE GAVE
OF TEN THINGS, YOU KNOW, LAKE
POSSIBLE --
MARIA: TEN PREDICTIONS.
>> YEAH, YEAH.
I DON’T KNOW.
MARIA: HE PREDICTS THE FOLLOWING
TOP TEN SURPRISES FOR 2024, AND
ONE OF THEM IS PRESIDENT BIDEN
WITHDRAWS SOMETIME BETWEEN SUPER
TUESDAY AND THE NOVEMBER
ELECTION CITING HEALTH REASONS.
>> YEAH.
I’M SAYING HE’S NOT -- I KNOW IT
SAYS THAT.
HE’S USUALLY BYRON MEAN SAYING
HERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT MIGHT
HAPPEN, THAT ARE REASONABLE TO
HAPPEN AND YOU SHOULD BE
THINKING ABOUT.
SO IF YOU SAID DOES HE EXPECT OR
NOT EXPECT THAT, I DON’T KNOW
THE ANSWER TO THAT.
MARIA: SO DO YOU THINK IT’LL BE
BIDEN VERSUS TRUMP?
>> IT’S PROBABLY A 75% CHANCE,
YES.
MARIA: BUT IS IT TRUE THAT YOU
ARE SUPPORTING NIKKI HALEY?
>> I AM -- I DIDN’T COME OUT
SUPPORTING HER.
WHAT I SAID IS I THINK SHE’D
MAKE A GOOD PRESIDENT.
I DO.
YOU KNOW, SHE’S CONSERVATIVE.
I THINK SHE’D BE A GOOD CHOICE.
I THINK IF YOU WERE A REPUBLICAN
AND SHE WAS THERE, I THINK SHE’D
BE A VERY GOOD CHOICE.
I WAS THINKING AT THE TIME, YOU
KNOW, BIDEN VERSUS HALEY, THAT
WOULD BE A GOOD THING.
MARIA: YOU’VE ALWAYS TALKED
ABOUT YOU’RE A DEMOCRAT, EVEN
DURING THE 2007-2008 COLLAPSE,
YOU SAID I’M HANGING ON BY MY
FINGERNAILS, BUT I’M A DEMOCRAT.
>> THE PROBLEM WITH SAYING
YOU’RE A DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN,
PEOPLE THINK YOU GIVE KNEE-JERK
SUPPORT TO EVERYTHING THOSE
PEOPLE BELIEVE.
I’M NOT -- I FEEL LIKE I HAVE A
DEMOCRATIC HEART, I HAVE MUCH
MORE OF A REPUBLICAN BRAIN.
AND I THINK NEED POLICIES THAT
ACTUALLY WORK WITH.
MARIA: WE TALKED IN THE PAST
ABOUT SUCCESSION.
WHAT ABOUT A ROLE IN GOVERNMENT
FOR YOU?
IF WOULD YOU CONSIDER
TRANSITIONING TO A GOVERNMENT
ROLE?
>> PROBABLY NOT.
I LOVE WHAT I DO.
I’M GOING TO BE DOING IT FOR A
WHILE.
WE’VE GOT UNBELIEVABLE PEOPLE.
THIS IS MY WAY TO MAKE, DO THE
BEST I CAN TO MAKE THE WORLD A
BETTER MACE AND HELP OUR
EMPLOYEES, OUR CUSTOMERS, MY
COMPANY AND OUR COUNTRY.
ME DOING SOMETHING IN GOVERNMENT
IS PROBABLY UNLIKELY.
MARIA: YOU SAID, WELL, I WOULD
LIKE TO BE PRESIDENT, BUT I
WOULD LIKE TO BE ANOINTED --
[LAUGHTER]
AND NOT CAMPAIGN BECAUSE I
COULDN’T WIN IF I WAS
CAMPAIGNING.
[LAUGHTER]
TELL US MORE, JAMIE.
>> THERE’S NO MORE TO TELL YOU.
IF YOU ANOINTED AMERICA I’D BE
HAPPY TO DO THE JOB.
[LAUGHTER]
I THINK I’D DO A PRETTY GOOD
JOB.
IF I WAS PRESIDENT, I WOULD HAVE
A CABINET OF REPUBLICANS AND
DEMOCRATS.
I THINK WE SHOULD STOP INSULTING
THE OTHER SIDE INCLUDING MAGA.
A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE VOTING FOR
PRESIDENT TRUMP NOT BECAUSE THEY
BELIEVE IN HIS FAMILY VALUES,
BUT THEY LOOK AT SOME OF THE
THINGS HE DID.
HE GREW THE ECONOMY, HE WAS
RIGHT ABOUT NAY TO I -- NATO, HE
WAS RIGHT ABOUT, POINTING OUT
ABOUT CHINA, HE WAS RIGHT THAT
SOME REGULATIONS DO NOT CAUSE
POSITIVE OUTI PUT, SO THAT’S WHY
THEY’VE VOTING FOR HIM.
AND I THINK THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD
BE MORE THOUGHTFUL WHEN THEY
TALK ABOUT MAGA AND SAY, WHY?
DON’T ACT LIKE EVERY ATTRIBUTE
OF TRUMP IS AN ATTRIBUTE OF
THEM.
IT’S JUST NOT TRUE.
MARIA: JAMIE, LET ME GO BACK TO
THOSE FOREIGN THREATS YOU’VE
BEEN TALKING ABOUT SO MUCH WITH
YOUR ANNUAL LETTER AND
COLLEAGUES.
THE PERCEPTION OF CHINA, OF
COURSE, HAS SHIFTED SINCE THE
LAST TIME YOU AND I SPOKE ABOUT
THIS AFTER ALL OF THE SOFT
ATTACKS, SURVEILLANCE BALLOON
WITH, SUPPORTING OUR
ADVERSARIES, FENTANYL, COVID.
THE LIST IS LONG.
HAS YOUR POSITION ON INVESTING
IN AND DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA
CHANGED, JAMIE?
>> I THINK, FIRST OF ALL, THE
RISK IS HEIGHTENED, RIGHT?
SO IF YOU’RE TALKING AS AN
INVESTOR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT,
THE RISK-REWARD HAS GOTTEN
WORSE.
AND I THINK IT’S TRUE FOR MOST
AMERICAN COMPANIES.
AND REMEMBER, WE SAY INVESTING
IN CHINA, WE BANK -- IF I
REMEMBER CORRECTLY -- 500 MULL
BY NATIONALS TURNED --
MULTI-NATIONALS AROUND THE WORLD
IN CHINA.
WE FOLLOW ALL AMERICAN LAWS.
AMERICA HAS TO SET FOREIGN
POLICY.
I APPLAUD THE FACT THAT THE
GOVERNMENT OF AMERICA AND CHINA
ARE TALKING.
THERE SHOULD BE TOUGH
NEGOTIATIONS AROUND TRADE.
I THINK, YOU KNOW, UKRAINE,
ECONOMICS, UNFAIR IF ECONOMICS,
THINGS WE HAVE TO DO WITH NOT
JUST ECONOMICS, BUT FOR OUR OWN
NATIONAL SECURITY, ABSOLUTELY.
I’M AN AMERICAN PATRIOT BEFORE
ANYTHING ELSE, AND HOPEFULLY
THOSE TALKS WILL END UP IN THE
RIGHT PLACE.
BUT THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS
ISSUES THERE, AND I THINK WE
HAVE SERIOUS PEOPLE SPENDING
REAL SERIOUS TIME ON IT.
MARIA: JAMIE, I KNOW THIS IS
IMPORTANT TO YOU, YOU’RE THERE
IN SAN FRANCISCO AND, LOOK, THE
CITY HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY,
OKAY?
HOMELESSNESS, CRIME, DRUGS.
EVEN YOU A COUPLE YEARS AGO
QUESTIONED WHETHER OR NOT YOU
WERE GOING TO TAKE THIS
CONFERENCE OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO.
YOU DIDN’T.
YOU STUCK IT OUT.
WHY?
>> YEAH.
YOU KNOW, I THINK -- FIRST OF
ALL, I’M HAVING LUNCH TOMORROW
WITH SOME OF THE CITY LEADERS TO
TALK ABOUT THAT VERY SUBJECT.
I THINK EVERY CITY, LIKE EVERY
COUNTRY, SHOULD BE THINKING
ABOUT WHAT IS IT THAT MAKES IT
AN ATTACKTIVE CITY.
IT’S PARKS, IT’S ART, BUT IT’S
DEFINITELY SAFETY, YOU KNOW?
IT’S JOBS, JOB CREATION, IT’S
THE ABILITY TO HAVE AWE A FORD
BL HOUSING.
IT’S ALL THOSE THINGS.
IT’S NOT ANY ONE THING.
BUT ANY CITY THAT DOESN’T DO A
GOOD JOB, IT WILL LOSE ITS
POPULATION.
THEY ARE JUST TAXED MORE AND
MORE AND, YOU KNOW, IT DOESN’T
WORK.
SO YOU’VE SEEN SOME CITIES DO A
GREAT JOB LIKE, YOU KNOW, OR
CITIES ALL OVER THE PLACE, AND
SOME CITIES DO A TERRIBLE JOB.
THE GOVERNMENT’S GOT TO LISTEN
TO BUSINESS.
SOME OF THESE GREAT COMPANIES
HERE, IF THEY COULD GROW JOBS
HERE, GREAT FOR THE CITY, BUT
THEY NEED HOUSING.
IF THEY CAN’T GET THE PERMIT TO
BUILD AFFORDABLE HOUSING, THEY
CAN’T BUILD A NEW BUILDING HERE
AND BRING IN, YOU KNOW, HIGH
PAID EMPLOYEES, ETC.
MARIA: JAMIE, WHAT ABOUT NEW
YORK?
IS IT THE SAME ISSUES IN NEW
YORK?
LOOK, AREN’T YOU THE LARGEST
EMPLOYER IN NEW YORK,
JPMORGAN --
>> WE ARE THE LARGEST PRIVATE.
OBVIOUSLY, THE DoE AND THE
POLICE DEPARTMENT, ETC., ARE
BIGGER THAN US.
YOU KNOW, AND I THINK -- THIS
MAYOR’S ACTIVELY ENGAGED.
I MEAN, HE REACHES OUT.
MARIA: OKAY.
>> WE’VE HAD LUNCH A COUPLE
TIMES.
I THINK HE’S DOING SOME OF THE
RIGHT STUFF ON CRIME.
HE’S GOT SOME TOUGH PROBLEMS,
BUT HE’S GETTING A LOT OF
SUPPORT.
SAN FRANCISCO’S IN FAR WORSE
SHAPE THAN NEW YORK.
THE ONLY THING NEW YORK’S GOT TO
WORRY ABOUT IS FISCAL.
YOU CAN’T HAVE A FISCAL DEFICIT
THAT HIGH WHERE YOU THINK TAXING
INDIVIDUALS AND COMPANIES MORE
AND MORE WHERE, YOU KNOW, THE
BULK OF THE TAX IS PAID BY A
HANDFUL OF PEOPLE, YOU KNOW,
IT’S DRIVING PEOPLE OUT.
AND THERE ARE SOLUTIONS TO THAT.
YOU KNOW, SOMETIMES THE SOLUTION
IS REVENUE, BUT WITH SOMETIMES,
YOU KNOW, LIKE I WOULD LOVE ARE
GOVERNMENT TO SPEND MORE TIME --
WE SPEND YOUR MONEY, DO WE DO IT
WELL.
MARIA: YEAH.
>> SO EVERY DEPARTMENT SHOULD
SEND YOU A REPORT.
I THINK THE PRESS SHOULD BE MORE
COMMANDING.
HOW MUCH -- DEMANDING.
HOW MUCH MONEY DO WE GIVE TO
THIS DEPARTMENT, WHAT DID THEY
SAY THEY WERE GOING TO DO, WHAT
DID THEY DO.
MARIA: YEAH.
>> I THINK YOU COULD SPEND MONEY
A LOT MORE IF WISELY.
ALL THIS IRS DEBATE, $80
BILLION, YOU KNOW WHAT MY
QUESTION WAS IN HOW MUCH DID
THEY ALREADY SPEND, AND DID THEY
SPEND IT ALL?
IF RATHER THAN JUST THROWING
MONEY -- CAN.
MARIA: ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE
OPEN BORDER?
>> YES.
YOU KNOW, I MEAN, YOU KNOW,
EVERY COUNTRY’S GOT TO SAY THEY
HAVE A SECURE, CONTROLLED
BORDER.
MARIA: RIGHT.
>> THIS IS NOT JUST AN AMERICAN
ISSUE.
IT’S ACTUALLY FAR WORSE IN
EUROPE.
WE NEED SECURITY AT THE BORDER.
WE ALSO NEED, YOU KNOW,
MIGRATION TO ALLOW PEOPLE IN
WITH TALENT.
YOU KNOW, WE -- THIS -- THE
MELTING POT OF AMERICA IS AN
UNBELIEVABLE THING, YOU KNOW?
YOU SHOULD NEED SECURITY AT THE
BORDER, A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP,
DACA SHOULD STAY, MORE
MERIT-BASED, MORE SEASONAL
WORKERS, YOU KNOW?
AND ACTUALLY, SOME OF THE
SEASONAL WORKERS AND OTHER MERIT
BASED, YOU’LL GET MORE GROWTH
HERE WHICH MEANS YOU’LL GET MORE
TAXES PAID HERE.
MOST AMERICANS ARE NOT ANGRY AT
THE PEOPLE THEY KNOW WHO ARE
IMMIGRANTS.
THEY’RE ANGRY WHEN THEY READ
ABOUT 2-300,000 PEOPLE A MONTH
CROSSING THE BORDER WITH NO
CONTROLS.
MARIA: THAT’S RIGHT.
>> YOU LOSE YOUR, YOU LOSE YOUR
NATIONAL BEING.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, WE’VE MADE IT