QUARTER AND UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS QUARTER.
DAVID.
DAVID: KELLY, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
ECONOMIST HARRY DENT MAKING A
DIRE PREDICTION ABOUT THE MARKET
NEXT YEAR.
HE SAYS 2024 IS GOING TO BRING,
AND I’M QUOTING HIM NOW, THE
BIGGEST CRASH OF OUR LIFETIME.
ECONOMIST JOHN LONSKI IS HERE.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF DENT’S
PREDICTION?
>> I THINK IT’S A LITTLE BIT
OVER THE TOP.
IT’S A DARING PREDICTION.
DAVID: I HOPE SO.
>> ME TOO AND I DON’T SEE ANY
SIGN OF THAT HAPPENING RIGHT
NOW.
THE LONGER WE PUT OFF THIS
CORRECTION, EVENTUALLY THERE’S
GOT TO BE A SLOW DOWN OR MILD
RECESSION TO STOP THE RAPID
GROWTH OF CONSUMER CREDIT AND
WE’VE GOT TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT
THE ELEVATED PRICES IN HOUSING
AND RENT AND WHATNOT.
DAVID: EVEN AS THE FED IS
REDUCING RATES AND SAY THEY’RE
GOING TO REDUCE THREE TIMES IN
2024.
ISN’T THAT GOING TO STALL?
>> I’VE GOT BAD NEWS.
USUALLY RECESSIONS APPEAR AFTER
THE FED BEGINS TOQUET RATES SO I
DON’T THINK THE FORTHCOMING RATE
CUTS WILL STAVE OFF A ECONOMIC
DOWNTURN.
THAT MAY BE ASKING TOO MUCH.
DAVID: THE RATES COME DOWN AND
CHEAPER TO BORROW MONEY AND
COMPANIES CAN EXPAND AND USE
THAT CASH IN ORDER TO EXPAND AND
HIRE MORE PEOPLE, ISN’T THAT THE
OPPOSITE OF RECESSION?
>> ARE THEY GOING TO HIRE MORE
PEOPLE AND ENGAGE IN MORE
CAPITAL SPENDING IF SPENDING
OVERALL, IF CORPORATE REF KNEWS
ARE COMING IN WELL UNDER
EXPECTATIONS AND THAT’S THE
TRICK.
HOW MUCH LONGER CAN THE U.S.
CONSUMER CONTINUE TO SPEND AT A
RATE THAT SEEMS TO WELL OUTPACE
THE RATE AT WHICH THEIR INCOMES
ARE GROWING?
YOU SENT ME SOMETHING ABOUT THE
RETIREMENT PLANS.
DAVID: LET ME TELL YOU
SPECIFICALLY WHAT WE’RE GOING TO
TALK ABOUT, GENERAL XERES SAY
THEY’RE GOING TO NEED OVER
$1.1 MILLION TO RETIRE BUMMEST
ONLY EXPECT TO HAVE ABOUT $
$660,000.
THAT’S A $451,000 DIFFERENCE.
THE LARGEST WEALTH GAP OF ANY
GENERATION.
HOW DO THEY MAKE UP FOR THE LOST
TIME?
>> CUT BACK ON SPENDING AND
INCREASE SAVINGS.
THAT’S ALL THEY CAN POSSIBLY DO.
I DON’T KNOW, YOU KNOW H ARE
THEY GOING TO GO AHEAD AND MAKE
THAT TYPE OF MOVE?
IT’S BEYOND ME BUT IT MIGHT WELL
BE THIS CONSUMER SPENDING SPREE
THAT’S BEEN AROUND 2022, 2023
MAY DISAPPEAR IN 2024.
A YEAR AGO I LOOKED AT
RESTAURANT SALES UP NEARLY 10%
FROM A YEAR AGO AND FINAL
QUARTER OF 2022.
I SAID BY THE FINAL QUARTER OF
THIS YEAR RESTAURANT SALES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GROW BY 5%.
GUESS WHAT, THEY’RE STILL
GROWING BY NEARLY 10%.
THERE WERE PERHAPS MORE EX-KUSS
CASH OUT THERE LINGERING BECAUSE
OF THE SIMILAR STIMULUS.
DAVID: BY NOVEMBER OF 2024, BY
THE TIME OF THE ELECTION, ARE WE
GOING TO SEE A GOOD ECONOMY,
WHAT PEOPLE FEEL BETTER ABOUT
THE ECONOMY THAN THEY DO NOW OR
COULD IT BE WORSE?
>> I THINK IT’LL BE WORSE.
I THINK THIS WILL BE A VERY
ROUGH YEAR POLITICALLY AND
CREATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
AND I’M A CORPORATION.
I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE TAX FRAME
WORK WILL LOOK LIKE.
I DON’T KNOW WHAT THE REGULATORY
FRAME WORK WILL LOOK LIKE AND
WILL WE HAVE ALL OF THESE
SUBSIDIES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES?
THOSE COULD BE GONE.
I THINK THE SMART THING FOR
MANAGERS, FOR CORPORATE PEOPLE
TO DO IS HOLD BACK ON SPENDING
PLANTS AND STAFF AND GET THE
ELECTION OUT OF THE WAY.
JUST BY HOLDING BACK, THAT’S
GOING TO SLOW THE ECONOMY DOWN.
DAVID: CONSUMERS ARE GONNA HAVE
TO SLOW DOWN BECAUSE THEY’RE
RUNNING OUT OF CREDIT.
>> I WOULD THINK SO BECAUSE
THEY’RE THE MILDER THE NEXT
RECESSION WILL BE.
THE LONGER THEY HOLDOFF ON
SPENDING AND INTEREST RATES STAY
HIGHER FOR LONGER AND WHEN THAT
DOWNTURN COMES IT’S GOING TO
HURT AND HARRY DENT STICKS.